The most popular multi indicator recovery shows th

2022-08-04
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Multi indicator recovery shows that economic stabilization and infrastructure investment may become the highlight of next year

multi indicator recovery shows that economic stabilization and infrastructure investment may become the highlight of next year

China Construction Machinery Information

the central economic work conference will be held this month. In an environment where downward pressure still exists, how to judge the domestic economic situation next year has become a hot spot in the current market, and various authoritative institutions have also made predictions and analysis recently

many experts believe that many data such as prices, investment and profits of industrial enterprises show that China's macro-economy has shown signs of stabilizing. Next year's economic growth may remain sluggish, but the improvement of growth quality is saving energy for the economy to get out of the bottom of the cycle. In this process, infrastructure investment and export may become the highlights of next year's economic operation

infrastructure investment may become the economic highlight of next year

the energy storage economy is quite close to the bottom

the most important thing of the upcoming central economic work conference is to clarify the economic work tasks in 2017

gaoyuwei, a researcher at the Institute of international finance of Bank of China, believes that at this meeting, there are new formulations almost every year. At the meeting in December last year, he proposed "three deletions, one reduction and one compensation". In 2016, in this way, each loading can only reach a certain load. The de capacity and de inventory progress is obvious, the de capacity task of steel and coal is completed ahead of schedule, and the inventory of the first and second tier real estate is significantly reduced. The effect of deleveraging and cost reduction is limited. The household leverage ratio has increased significantly. The enterprise leverage ratio and its comprehensive operating cost are still high. There is a long way to go

according to zhujianfang, chief macro economist of CITIC Securities, from the observation of inventory cycle, equipment investment cycle, real estate cycle, monetary policy cycle, financial leverage cycle and the relatively simple design cycle of population fixture, the consistency of multiple indicators indicates that China's economic "liquidation" has reached a certain level, the "three going" has accelerated the process of economic liquidation, and China's economy is one step away from the bottom

liushijin, vice president of the China Development Research Foundation and former deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, also said earlier that China's economy is quite close to the bottom. In the next oneortwo years, if the macro policies are appropriate and the supply side reform can make substantial progress, the bottom of China's economy is a high probability event. "To hit the bottom is actually to find a stable equilibrium point for medium-speed growth." Liushijin stressed that the medium speed growth platform should attach importance to quality and efficiency, maintain resource sustainability, and truly be stable. New growth momentum is very important

However, Guolei, chief Macro Analyst of GF Securities, believes that the current macro-economy is not the final bottom. The actual economic growth has been fluctuating downward since 2013, and has been flat in the last three quarters, but this flat is not the evidence of bottoming out. He said that since the real growth rate of China's economy has been going down, it has maintained around 7.7% for three quarters, around 7.0% for three quarters and around 6.7% for three quarters. The current 6.7% includes the obvious high overdraft of real estate and cars, which will be further returned in the future

Xie Yaxuan, chief Macro Analyst of China Merchants Securities, predicted that China's macro-economic situation in 2017 was similar to that in 2016. There was neither enough power to achieve a breakthrough in turning or stopping the mechanical and electrical work, nor the basis for a cliff like decline. Although the economic growth remains sluggish, the improvement of the quality of economic growth is saving energy for China's economy to get out of the bottom of the cycle

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